The Zambrano-Bonderman Conundrum

A conundrum is loosely understood to be something that puzzles so it makes sense to make use of the word Tharold Simon Jersey when describing the anomaly contained in the age and FIPs of both Carlos Zambrano and Jeremy Bonderman. Weve discu sed pitchers either outperforming their FIP or failing to live up to it lots of times here, but, in probing the last three calendar years feature recently instituted on the leaders page, it appears that things tend to even out a bit. Except, obviously, in relation to Zambrano and Bonderman.Sixty starting pitchers qualified for inclusion during the last three calendar years and they produced the next averages:ERA-FIP: 0.12BABIP: .303LOB: 71.8%K/BB: 2.48HR Doug Williams Jersey /9: 0.98One standard deviation of the ERA-FIP is 0.28, meaning we can expect about 2/3 from the data to fall within the -0.16 to 0.40 range; additionally, 95% of the data should be expected to fall inside the -0.44 to 0.68 range. Of the audience of sixty pitchers, just two fell beyond the 95% confidence interval: Carlos Zambrano at -0.53 and Jeremy Bonderman at 0.83.Now, one potential reason that someone like Zambrano consistently posts better ERAs than his FIP would suggest could cope with his BABIP: the typical BABIP of the group in this span is .303 and Zambrano comes in at .273, a complete thirty points lower. On the other end from the spectrum Keith Marshall Jersey , Bonderman comes in at .325, over twenty points higher. In fact, when examining the eighteen pitchers who fell beyond one standard deviation of the ERA-FIP mean, the nine higher than 0.40 ranged from .297-.332 in BABIP while those below -0.16 ranged between .269-.309.I actually discovered whilst penning this post that a question regarding Zambrano outperforming his FIP was posed in the Inside the Book mailbag, that MGL mentioned the po sibility of him posting a lower than average BABIP after concluding that it's definitely feasible for certain pitchers to publish certain kinds of BABIPs. This is definitely the case. As MGL also noted within the mailbag, FIP is a very good at eliminating the noise in BABIP, that allows us to Chris Baker Jersey obtain a better estimate of the pitchers run prevention skill, in the short run. In the long run, ERA, RA or ERC is MUCH better because it captures the variations in BABIP skill among pitchers, as well as the other things I mentioned above that contribute to a pitchers run prevention skill but are not addre sed at all in FIP (like WP rate).So, one good reason both of these guys are continually posting ERAs far better or worse than their FIP would T.J. Thorpe Jersey suggest could be that they have posted below or above average BABIPs with enough regularity to exhibit they've some type of control over it; in that regard, their ERA will be a better indicator of run prevention. On the other hand, they might not have control over their BABIP and this could all balance out, but it would appear this is an extremely likely cause at this juncture.