Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat 8212 11-5-1

8:59Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys
8:59Jeff Sullivan: A global champion was decided last week. Now that feels like forever ago!
9:01Comment From MartyWhere would you see Ellsbury landing? Is Seattle the favorite based on what youve heard?
9:01Jeff Sullivan: Allow me to place it such as this:
9:01Jeff Sullivan: I dont think the Mariners are likely to sign Ellsbury, however i think the Mariners are the most likely individual team to sign Ellsbury.
9:01Jeff Sullivan: Needs there, moneys there, willingne s to overpay is probably there
9:01Comment From SadwickHiya Jeff.
9:01Jeff Sullivan: hey hi!
9:02Comment From DavidThoughts about this defensive coordinator position that Matt Williams is bringing to DC?
9:02Jeff Sullivan: Fascinating. Probably worth a post here. Theres still not ultra-convincing evidence that shifting works the way in which its supposed to, therefore we require more data, but I didnt expect Williams to be such a forward-thinking former player. Just according to that alone, the Nats appear to be theyre in good hands
9:03Comment From MarkShocked Josh Johnson didnt obtain a QO, or do the Jays know more about his health compared to rest of us?
9:04Jeff Sullivan: Johnson threw half a season and posted a period in the 6s. Sabermetrically, it wouldve been justified to give him a QO, but I think it absolutely is sensible to draw the line below $14.A million. Id be prepared to pay for him that much in 2014, but really only if he hit some incentives rather than guaranteeing up front
9:05Comment From T. FergusonThree best FA fits for any Mariner Makeover? Is Ellsbury one?
9:05Jeff Sullivan: I havent look at this yet, but talk about timing! http://www.u smariner.com/2013/11/05/daves-2014-off-season-plan/
9:05Comment From Eminor3rdHey Jeff, you had been early, and also you deserve recognition for that
9:05Comment From WilliamHow many First place votes can Trout manage? We know Posnanski is voting for ALMVP so thats 1.
9:06Jeff Sullivan: This past year, he got 6/28. This year you can conceivably visit a challenger in Josh Donaldson. Ill refer to it as 4/28
9:07Comment From StuartIts probably just obsolescence, why isnt Bill James Secondary average used anymore? I usually discovered that useful, and that i still utilize it today.
9:08Jeff Sullivan: Weve just managed to move on to better offensive stats, and at some time you'll need only so many. But you can keep using it its not likely to give you the wrong ideas very often
9:08Comment From sempertyIf youre St. Louis, who do you decide to go after as a SS (around the open market or by trade), and just what are you willing to pay for that individual?
9:09Jeff Sullivan: Seems like it may be time [url=http://www.idealcowboys.com/45-Jeremiah_George_Jersey][b]Jeremiah George Jersey[/b][/url] for you to make something happen with Andrus or Profar
9:09Jeff Sullivan: Drew will be a backup, but theres a lot talent to be traded there in St. Louis
9:09Comment From Jon Jays MomYouve mentioned that Franklin Gutierrez might be quite a jump on the disposable agent market. Odds the Cardinals take a risk on him?
9:10Jeff Sullivan: Slim theyve already got something of a complicated outfield, and i believe he goes somewhere that may promise a bit more playing time
9:10Jeff Sullivan: But he would be a fascinating gamble to take over al ot of your time in CF if Taveras isnt deemed ready and also the team really wants to explore non-Jay po sibilities
9:11Comment From MartyIf you had been a GM, can you hire a manager who has yet to handle an expert team?
9:11Jeff Sullivan: I believe so, yeah. And I actually intend to talk about this very topic somehow now. Havent started researching yet but this seems to be a trend
9:11Comment From MaloneThoughts on Brad Ausmus hire?
9:11Jeff Sullivan: From what Ive heard, hes something of the baseball genius, so thats encouraging
9:11Comment From KyleReading the outlet to Daves off-season plan and wondering, when was the final time the Mariners were this sad and uninspiring?
9:11Jeff Sullivan: 2008 was absolutely dreadful
9:13Comment From CurtisCan Ethan Martin begin in Philly or perhaps is a destined for that pen
9:13Jeff Sullivan: I believe bullpens the chance, if he's a long-term future in the majors at all
9:13Comment From person hscerCan you are writing about 30 teams for an long time and remain a fan of one team?
9:14Jeff Sullivan: I believe you can, if that team doesnt suck
9:14Jeff Sullivan: Itll be different, but the feelings will still be in there to deal with when full-time work time is over
9:14Comment From sempertyIs Johnson a good Francisco Liriano type project (obviously not same price)?
9:14Jeff Sullivan: Seems exactly the type!
9:15Comment From CurtisWhich is more fundamental to the succe s of a clubability to target draft-day talent and cost? or is it more e sential to po se s a quality player development system in place? it appears obvious that few teams have both
9:15Jeff Sullivan: Im going with player development. Id rather have decent scouting and awesome development than awesome scouting and decent development, because plenty of players could be good should you maximize them
9:16Comment From CatoblepasHi Jeff! I truly liked your article on Wainwright shifting his approach to Ortiz, varying his timing and rubber location. Can there be something about Ortiz that makes him particularly susceptible to a surprise approach? And if not, why doesnt Wainwright do all of it the time?
9:17Jeff Sullivan: Wainwright says he does it somewhat frequently, although I havent checked regarding the timing variation. I dont think it was something particular about Ortiz It was Wainwright just attempting to do something to slow Ortiz down, and when he did it against all the other Red Sox hitters Ortiz mightve seen it coming. I believe hes comfortable enough using the variation he could are in position to do it more, but good luck finding anything and proving that it includes a big effect
9:19Comment From GuestMiddlebrooks, Carp, Owens, Webster, Ranuado for Stanton? Is that enough? Would the Sox get it done?
9:19Jeff Sullivan: Nope, thats not getting it done
9:19Comment From Shark MapiroI just remarked that John Farrell and Mike Matheny is going to be managing next years All Star Game.
9:20Jeff Sullivan: Cant watch for Mathenys slow hook in July
9:21Comment From AndrewHey Jeff, what would the easiest method to convince someone of the need for sabermetrics?
9:21Jeff Sullivan: Good/tough question, but off the surface of my head, Id say Tampa Bay and Oakland
9:21Comment From WarrenI want the Twins to sign Phil Hughes, who would be their clear number 1 with a mile. How sad is that? Any chance?
9:22Jeff Sullivan: Thats pretty sad, and yeah, theres an excellent chance. He fits the mold, he ought to be affordable, and theres real upside after that he gets from the NYY park
9:22Comment From DouglasThe Angels appear to have two capable starting catchers, with Iannetta seemingly the more likely to become dealt. What kind of return could he bring the Angels? A B-prospect? A back-end starter? A high-end reliever?
9:23Jeff Sullivan: Probably a bundle highlighted by a B-level prospect. Iannetta doesnt have the strongest defensive rep, neither is he an outstanding hitter a lot as hes an excellent hitter
9:23Comment From MFGBaseball is officially in the Platoon Age, correct?
9:23Jeff Sullivan: I dont think so!
9:24Jeff Sullivan: Platoon Age implies there are platoons everywhere, which there aren't. Theyre limited mostly to a number of teams. If anything were in the centre Reliever Age
9:25Comment From person hscerWhy are singles worthle s in SecA?
9:25Jeff Sullivan: its like ISO + walks and net steals
9:25Comment From IanHow should someone with Jacoby Ellsburys skill set be expected to age?
9:26Jeff Sullivan: Fairly normally, probably a little slower than average. Hes had a lot of skills and athleticism so theres no one thing on which he entirely depends. I think people have a tendency to exaggerate the value of profile-specific aging curves
9:27Comment From TedThoughts on Salty in Boston? Im thinking they're going after AJ Pierzynski as a stop gap until Vazquez and Swihart are prepared, am I off base?
9:27Jeff Sullivan: I could see them as Texas main competitor for Brian McCann
9:27Comment From Che sHow much cash do you see Brian Wilson getting?
9:28Jeff Sullivan: Enough to buy an island and disappear forever
9:28Comment From MattDo you believe the Twins front office is smart enough to focus on the kind of pitchers they clearly need? Who would you see them actually signing?
9:28Jeff Sullivan: I believe theyre smart enough to recognize decent pitchers who arent likely to cost everything they have staying with you. So youre taking a look at acquisition candidates within the second and third tiers
9:29Jeff Sullivan: Guys like Scott Feldman!
9:29Comment From Yadier MolinaHow many 1st place votes will I enter the MVP?
9:29Jeff Sullivan: One or two
9:29Comment From A Tribe Called KipnisKendrys Morales needs to be the worst qualifying offer, right? He either accepts or Boras leverages the offer to sign a multi-year deal near the same average annual value.
9:30Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners want him back for multiple years, and so i think the QO was mostly about killing his market. Now theyll attempt to get him for like 3/$36 or something
9:30Comment From Pale HoseAre personal catchers for a pitcher an indication of wanting the better game caller/framer or of ficklene s?
9:31Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers feel more comfortable dealing with certain guys, guys with whom pitching is easy, guys that theyre always on the same page. You will see a correlation with game-calling and pitch-framing, but it wont be perfect because itll actually cover feel greater than itll be about numbers
9:31Comment From GuestIf the Dodgers somehow land Tanaka and value, how close would that be towards the best rotation ever?
9:32Jeff Sullivan: Not entirely convinced it might be much better than 2013 Detroit, especially because we dont understand what Tanaka is, however when I saw that rumor I laughed for three minutes
9:32Jeff Sullivan: So Dodgers
9:33Comment From GuestSomething which has always confused me about the way people talk about defensive metrics: Plenty of FG writers say they dont realise why people can accept players having down offensive years although not down defensive years. I recognize there a TON of factors that may affect defensive performance, but isnt that the terrible analogy? Hitters cant adjust to attack defenders in nearly exactly as pitchers and defenses may change to hitters. Its nothing like scouting reports circulated having said that hey, Trout struggles going back on line drives to his right. Lets hit much more of those.
9:35Jeff Sullivan: Its just that youre limited by samples that may not be sufficient to show true talent. Just a couple random defensive mistakes can cost a man a handful of runs, and they mightve been due to any number of things. If you feel about defensive chances, and then if you think no more than defensive chances which are non-routine, youre left with a reasonably little number, after which theres chaos
9:35Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, this season Carlos Gomez robbed, what, five home runs? Those go straight into his DRS despite the fact that thats not going to take place again, and never because Gomez isnt that talented
9:37Comment From Alex KiddWhich players (if any) do you see taking the QO?
9:37Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Granderson
9:37Jeff Sullivan: Argument for Morales, however i dont think he will
9:38Comment From Daniel CarrollShould the Mariners even bother obtaining an FA pitcher, or just throw all of the young arms out there and see what happens?
9:38Jeff Sullivan: They should get a guy, and I think they will
9:38Comment From IanAre there variations in aging curves for guys whose value is much more a sociated with their legs (Ellsbury with speed and defense) than guys who are mostly bat?
9:39Jeff Sullivan: There are differences, but theyre pretty slight and they shouldnt determine a teams course of action within free agency. Its always a case-by-case basis and knowing a player will explain more than knowing an aging curve
9:40Comment From MattWas it crazy in love with the Twins to not move ahead from Gardenhire this year?
9:40Jeff Sullivan: Not crazy. Who'd be much better? Was Gardenhire even the problem? A new manager is so not the Twins biggest need
9:40Jeff Sullivan: or even their tenth-biggest need
9:40Comment From Willwhich employees of fangraphs are presently around the hot seat?
9:40Jeff Sullivan: my seat is warm, from sitting on it
9:41Comment From Steve 1Did D.A. alter the Fangraphs color scheme to become lighther?
9:41Jeff Sullivan: It was intentional! However i havent found out anymore about it and so i dont know if its permanent
9:42Comment From TristanWhat was the final prospect you thought was surely a Cant Mi s and mi sed? I was thinking about Ruben Mateo another day.
9:42Jeff Sullivan: Ooh, let me get into some archives!
9:44Jeff Sullivan: All right, unoriginal, but probably Andy Marte
9:44Jeff Sullivan: For a more current answer, [url=http://www.idealcowboys.com/26-Darren_Mcfadden_Jersey][b]Darren McFadden Jersey[/b][/url] Jesus Montero will be a popular one, although Irrrve never considered him cant-mi s. But plenty did and boy does it seem like hes likely to mi s
9:44Jeff Sullivan: and then some!
9:44Comment From Steve 1I find myself becoming a le ser fan of a particular team just by growing older as well as more knowledgeable. Fans in many cases are just so unreasonable it can make experiencing any type of fandom type of painful
9:45Jeff Sullivan: I recall I used to think the world of die-hard fans. Used to envy their loyalty and commitment. Now I believe many of them are awful and kind of sad
9:46Jeff Sullivan: Its weird to wrap validation in the accomplishments of strangers. Obviously I still love sports and I still have favorite teams, however i think there are shifts in perspective that include mental maturity
9:46Jeff Sullivan: In times of difficulty, sports simultaneously become both more and le s important, so perhaps youll really lean on your favorite team when youre grieving? Not too I well this got dark
9:47Comment From EdWhat wouldn't it take for you to give up on the Mariners and begin rooting for another team. I am seriously depre sed after reading Daves summary on USSM today.
9:48Jeff Sullivan: Personally I could never root for an additional team more than the Mariners. Theyre just in there and theyre never going away. But my interest in the Mariners has most definitely waned on account of how awful theyve been, and I dont watch them greatly. I think at this point Im just le s forgiving of bad baseball and Im le s willing to endure it. Ive got shit to do, you realize?
9:48Comment From WWMRDDuring the growing season, would you watch Mariners games every single day, probably the most interesting matchup happening on that day, or no game whatsoever?
9:49Jeff Sullivan: Mixture of the 3, depending, plus the occasional day spent jumping from one game to the next. Then theres all of the baseball watching I actually do through MLB.tv archives
9:49Comment From MartyDoes Stanton start the season using the Marlins?
9:49Jeff Sullivan: I still think no, but at some point maybe I should start hearing exactly what the Marlins are actually saying. They're saying theyre likely to build around him, soooo
9:50Jeff Sullivan: My belief is hell function as the hot topic during the winter meetings. Maybe after hes rejected whatever contract proposal the Marlins take in his direction
9:51Comment From Tristanthoughts on Arenado winning Gold Glove? apart from dismi sing the award that is.
9:51Jeff Sullivan: Who was better?
9:51Comment From PrichDoes STL putting a package together for Andrus simply make too much sense for sides to really come true? Them have $$$ and surplus in Tex areas of need, and the Rangers could dump salary and pick up pieces they need Whats to mi s!?
9:51Jeff Sullivan: I dont know. Theyve been beating for this bush for what feels like years. Its time
9:51Comment From Pirates HurdlesBucs require a LH 1B compliment to Gaby. Free agent like Loney or Hart or trade?
9:52Jeff Sullivan: I dont know which route theyll go, but theyll get a second- or third-tier 1B. And hell be just fine, at what he was brought in to do. Itll be a quiet acquisition
9:52Comment From sempertyWhat concerning the argument that SABR cant win championships? What is the good, clearly SABR team thats won a title?
9:53Jeff Sullivan: Thats a dumb argument. You cant really do anything to convince dumb people of something that isnt dumb.
9:53Jeff Sullivan: But, if youre resigned to trying:
9:53Jeff Sullivan: 1st argument: construct the way the playoffs really are a random crapshoot2nd argument: construct the saber teams whove made the playoffs
presto
9:54Jeff Sullivan: the 2004 Red Sox started Mark Bellhorn
9:54Comment From Pirates HurdlesWhoa, Daves big move is McCann with the organization tied so heavily to Zunino, odd to say the least.
9:55Jeff Sullivan: Easy to determine Zunino like a little too much like JP Arencibia. Also not hard to determine him as not quite ready
9:56Comment From JohnPeak/prime Mike Trout or peak/prime Alex Rodriguez? Whos better?
9:56Jeff Sullivan: Well, quickly, by our metrics, A-Rod has never quite had a 10-win season. Trouts already had two
9:56Jeff Sullivan: But I think when you examine their actual peaks, looking back, theyll be almost identical. Mike Trout may be the peak Alex Rodriguez of outfielders
9:57Comment From GuestWhy doesnt fangraphs have a Runs allower- instead of ERA-?
9:57Jeff Sullivan: I dont know. Feels like it ought to be there
9:57Comment From BenShould the Angels go after David Price?
9:57Jeff Sullivan: They dont po se s the pieces to get him
9:58Comment From NatsFanIve seen some posts predicting Ellsbury to that Nats. Thats silly, right?
9:58Jeff Sullivan: what the heck?
9:58Comment From DerekKolten Wong +/- 400 PAs in 2014 with Cardinals (or any place in MLB for instance)
9:58Jeff Sullivan: I believe under
9:59Comment From DerekEllsbury decline much like Damon?
9:59Jeff Sullivan: You mean virtually not at all?
10:00Jeff Sullivan: My prediction is the fact that Ellsbury will age fairly gracefully. I believe he ends up a 20-homer hitter later in the career
10:00Comment From TYRUSWHY IS U A PUNKASS BITCH FOR
10:00Comment From TYRUSGTFO WITH THIS SHIT
10:00Comment From A LaneJeff what are your current theories for the relatively decreased run environment, away from rise in called strike? Feel free to theorize even without the data?
10:01Jeff Sullivan: More talented pitchers + more pitcher specialization + more focus on defense/run prevention
10:01Jeff Sullivan: How often during the playoffs did we hear some player say that even just not too long ago there werent this many flamethrowers?
10:01Jeff Sullivan: Every team has a bunch of guys throwing 95+ and that has to have kind of difference
10:02Comment From MikeGiven the prominence of flamethrowing relievers and managers playing matchups, do you see a suppre sion of the marketplace for #3-4 SPs in the future?
10:02Jeff Sullivan: Nah, theyre still too important during the period of a full season
10:02Comment From MFGIn your estimation, what is % chance David Price is on TBs opening day roster?
10:02Jeff Sullivan: 5
10:03Comment From GuestHey Jeff, I watched the Senators-Blackhawks game the other day and I are saying that Erik Karl son may be the Miguel Cabrera of hockey. Unbelievable talent offensively but just doesnt have curiosity about defending.
10:03Jeff Sullivan: Other sports fans have to think inside a WAR type of framework. Stop focusing just on offense or defense or whatever! Put it altogether! It all counts! And yes you're pretty much correct
10:03Jeff Sullivan: thankfully Miguel Cabrera is amazing
10:04Comment From PedroYou say Middlebrooks, Carp, Owens, Webster, & Ranaudo wont get it done for Stanton. Let's say they added Bradley Jr. to that mix?
10:04Jeff Sullivan: Then you have a conversation
10:05Comment From person hscerHow quickly we forget Halladay Lee Hamels Oswalt
10:05Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&ty...
10:05Jeff Sullivan: Havent seen rotations like 2013 Detroit or 2011 Philadelphia in a decade or so
10:06Comment From danWhat would you see because the floor of the items Ellsbury signs for and what do you think he'll sign for?
10:06Jeff Sullivan: [url=http://www.idealcowboys.com/14-Cedric_Thornton_Jersey][b]Cedric Thornton Jersey[/b][/url] As a floor, maybe 6/$100. I think he signs for more like 6/$120
10:06Comment From BrianDo you think Garza to the Nats had the ability to happen? Will they need another arm of the caliber and risk?
10:07Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it could happen to complete the starting rotation, and its nothing like theres much of organizational SP depth. Dont think it might be the smartest relocate the world, but the Nationals want to win soon and Garza will make them wins better
10:07Comment From Daniel NavaWhat are the likelihood of me playing first base for that Sox next year?
10:07Jeff Sullivan: almost zero
10:07Comment From TedDo you believe the announcement through the Marlins that they will not move Stanton is simply posturing? Do you consider it might be wise for them to hold onto him? Nobody expects them to repay as he is really a FA.
10:09Jeff Sullivan: They shouldve moved him last year. They ought to move him now. I think they may not understand precisely how unwilling he probably would be to sign a contract extension to stay around. Im sure the Marlins would like to develop a winner around Stanton, but theyre not going to win before hes at FA age now it's time to cash him in. I think theyll come to that realization shortly
10:09Comment From CheebsDo you ever search Ichiro on baseball reference? If that's the case, how much does that Fat Ichiro nickname annoy you? Simply take me to Ichiros page!
10:09Jeff Sullivan: favorite nickname in baseball!
10:09Comment From Scout FinchCould the thing is the Giants punting their draft pick to sign Ubaldo Jimenez?
10:10Jeff Sullivan: I think the higher likelihood is Bronson Arroyo
10:10Jeff Sullivan: Get excited for Bronson Arroyo!!
10:11Comment From RayMartin Perez, Andrus and Leonys Martin for Stanton a fair deal?
10:11Jeff Sullivan: On talent its not lopsided, however the Marlins could po sibly want greater a surances that theyre returning somebody really good, instead of somebody all right and potentially really good
10:11Jeff Sullivan: Andrus isnt hitting, Martin hasnt hit much, Perez is much more of a mid-rotation sort than an ace, as young as he is
10:11Comment From Po BoyThe recent mews concerning the Dolphins intra-team busine s involving Incognito and Martin is actually sickening. Do you know if that type of thing goes on in the MLB or are guys not quite as insanely aggre sive?
10:13Jeff Sullivan: Im sure theres some relatively ugly stuff around MLB, but I dont think its anywhere close to the Dolphins environment. Baseball players arent sportsmen, as simplistic as that sounds. As a pro baseball player you've little choice but to cope with clubhouse diversity
10:13Comment From CatoblepasDo you think Drew takes the QO? It appears as though he should, however the marketplace for shortstops is really terrible However, I can also imagine his ws woes coloring perceptions of him
10:15Jeff Sullivan: I believe he gets out and signs himself a three- or four-year contract. Doors open a little for him to come back, but hell be provided greater security elsewhere
10:15Comment From Scott BorasJeff Sullivan isn't fielding any more Jacoby Ellsbury questions at the moment.
10:15Jeff Sullivan: bullshit
10:15Jeff Sullivan: HIT ME
10:15Comment From AaronCarlos Triunfel?
10:15Jeff Sullivan: not good
10:15Comment From SadwickI whiffed pretty big with Andy Marte myself, I also bought in to the Francoeur hype his first season, but I was living just south of Atlanta there was a lot of hype available.
10:16Jeff Sullivan: Its funny from surprising busts, you usually want to try to understand a le son. What did I mi s about this player? For a while, you may will find signs in hindsight. But eventually you just come to the conclusion that players of all types can bust and theres nothing that you can do about this and theres nothing that you can do to determine it coming the majority of the time
10:16Comment From EdWouldnt it be fun to actually root for any good team, just for once? I remember when baseball was once fun!
10:16Jeff Sullivan: I'd fun bandwagoning in this years playoffs. Baseball is awesome when your team doesnt suck.
10:18Comment From George CostanzaWhat do you consider of 1 team signing bunches of QO guys to exploit the truth that the picks they lose every time reduction in value? They could then turn around and trade these guys immediately. Appears like the Sox are excellently positioned with this because of the fact that theyd be unable to lose the compensation picks theyre due anyway, and have the funds and roster flexibility to defend myself against and mitigate the chance of a ludicrous payroll.
10:18Jeff Sullivan: Cant just trade guys immediately in MLB, is my understanding
10:20Jeff Sullivan: Last offseason the Indians lost a pick to sign Bourn plus they lost another pick to sign Swisher, as well as their first-round pick was protected. There is some advantage to signing several QO player, but its relatively small, and at no more your day youre still paying FA prices and youre still having to obtain that FA pick your team over the rest
10:21Comment From DNAThe Marlins are going to build around Stanton, sure, but build what exactly? Maybe theyll build another home run feature since hes the only real player they've likely to hit them? A cage having a curtain around it so they can sell tickets to determine him hit? The options are endle s!
10:21Jeff Sullivan: Theres plenty of young talent in that organization so theyre not too terribly far off. But theyre not really good before Stanton is super expensive
10:22Comment From Vista Prospect VantageWhat do you consider of Lookout Landings offseason plan? Do the constraints of good manners allow it to be impo sible to comment?
10:22Jeff Sullivan: Nothing about manners, just didnt see it
10:22Comment From DEREKSHOULD THE RED SOX REALLY GO HARD AFTER MCANN IS HE REALLY THAT BIG OF A IMPROVEMENT OVER SALTY Long and short TERM
10:22Jeff Sullivan: How could I not accept this from the queue!
10:22Jeff Sullivan: HES An excellent PLAYER AND HES TREMENDOUSLY CAPABLE Like a DEFENSIVE CATCHER And thus HED Be considered a QUALITY INVESTMENT WHO COULD DH AND PLAY FIRST BASE On the ROAD
10:23Comment From GuestMariners are as tied to Zunino as they were Montero no?
10:24Jeff Sullivan: Theyve reallllllly tried hard to sell Zunino because the future, but yeah, ultimately, a players a player and fans simply want a team to win
10:24Comment From TKDCErrors arent an excellent way of measuring defense, but doesnt variation in errors help make the argument for other variations in defense?
10:25Jeff Sullivan: Most certainly
10:25Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, when i try to look up some telling examples, Im finding annoyingly little error variation
10:26Comment From GuestMore likely, Harper 50 HR season or Trout 40 HR season?
10:26Jeff Sullivan: Trout
10:26Comment From sempertyDo the Dodgers po se s the pieces to obtain Price?
10:26Jeff Sullivan: Sure do
10:26Comment From Dave from PittsburghFans of huge market teams are hilarious, they always think they can just get players
10:26Jeff Sullivan: Turns out there are a lot of teams vying for the same players so we cant just cut them in half
10:26Jeff Sullivan: unle s
10:26Jeff Sullivan: we can
10:26Comment From Vista Prospect VantageFelixs home is burning! Don't let all go beyond there with buckets?
10:27Jeff Sullivan: So we all know where Felix Hernandez lives
10:27Comment From BretI actually saw an interesting Ellsbury/Nats idea, that saw him land there, allowing the Nationals to deal Span and Espinosa for Brandon Phillips.
10:28Jeff Sullivan: But Phillips is really expensive, and worse than Span is
10:29Jeff Sullivan: Not that I couldnt see it, but I often see more likely courses of action
10:29Comment From CatoblepasAre there actually more flamethrowers, or is the way teams use pitchers changing and thats leading to exactly the same pitchers throwing harder?
10:30Jeff Sullivan: Both, but mostly A. I believe lots of pitchers simply have stronger arms now
10:30Jeff Sullivan: I dont know how thats happened. Its amazing though
10:30Comment From DNAyou must love %-chance questions because theres no way you may be proven wrong!
10:30Jeff Sullivan: shhhh
10:32Comment From sempertyWhat do you consider itd cost St. Louis to grab Andrus?
10:33Jeff Sullivan: NOTE: I'm not proficient at this
10:33Jeff Sullivan: however in the eye of attempting:
10:33Jeff Sullivan: Miller/Adams?
10:33Jeff Sullivan: Is the fact that crazy? I cant tell. Im so bad at hypothetical trades :(
10:33Comment From RomanHow much worse will the Reds maintain 2014, a suming Choo is finished?
10:34Jeff Sullivan: Itll be considered a find it difficult to qualify for one of the wild cards
10:34Comment From RomanWill you mail me some Pyramid Brews?
10:34Jeff Sullivan: Dont you would like something better?
10:35Comment From Harlan, Ralph, and LarryHey, Jeff. Are you able to consider the last time a World Series team meaningfully upgraded itself while simultaneously cutting payroll by $10-15M? St. Louis can do so merely by getting E. Aybar or A. Ramirez to replace Kozma, and supplanting Jon Jay with Oscar Taveras, right?
10:36Jeff Sullivan: Not considering many non-Marlins examples at all of WS teams who subsequently trimmed payroll
10:36Jeff Sullivan: But yeah, the Cardinals get it easy in that its pretty apparent where they need to get better
10:36Comment From JayThink Oscar T gets 400 abs in St. Louis next year? If so, his or her CF?
10:36Jeff Sullivan: Yes, and mostly although not all of the time
10:37Comment From BeBoopBeepWhats the marketplace for Dusty Baker this offseason?
10:37Jeff Sullivan: Non-existent
10:37Jeff Sullivan: incredible actually. hasnt even been talked about like a candidate for just about any opening
10:37Comment From BillyWhy dont more AL teams use 13 pitchers? The additional advantage of being able to exchange a 4/5 starter earlier hanging around would seem more than using a 5th outfielder or 5th infielder.
10:38Jeff Sullivan: Theres already a lot of pitching-staff flexibility, and you can keep valuable and versatile position players on the bench. If you feel you would like another fresh pitcher you can just recall one from Triple-A
10:38Comment From sempertyDoes it take one of Taveras/Miller/Wacha to seize Andrus, or could they be very much?
10:38Jeff Sullivan: Taveras is most likely much, but Im more willing to let go of a young pitcher
10:38Comment From Meano EnoBronson Arroyo = Barry Zito?
10:38Jeff Sullivan: Hard not to immediately draw that parallel
10:39Comment From Harlan, Ralph, and LarryAs a Cardinal fan(s), I do NOT want either of the Texas guys at shortstop. Profar is someday destined to be real good, but simply too unproven (both lumber & leather) for any contender to simply connect at age 21. And Elvis is a ma sive decade-long commitment. Gimme 3 years of nice, boring, hyperdurable 3-WAR Alexei Ramirez, please.
10:39Jeff Sullivan: Perfectly reasonable!
10:39Jeff Sullivan: Ramirez wont be a franchise SS, but the Cardinals dont require a franchise SS. They just require a SS
10:39Comment From PrichAre you likely to perform a Jeffs Offseason Plan for USSM? Or has Dave copyrighted by using the specter of a case on said plans?
10:40Jeff Sullivan: Thats Daves thing. Im not good at roster figure-outing or designing trades out of thin air
10:40Comment From Vista Prospect VantageDo the Ellsbury towards the Rangers rumors seem a tad strange given that they have Martin and Gentry? Their real i sue is the corners.
10:40Jeff Sullivan: Problem isnt the corners. I sue is the outfield. Forget about the positions. Help is help and can you imagine the defense?
10:41Jeff Sullivan: However that said, Texas isnt going to sign him, almost certainly. They require a big-money catcher
10:41Comment From Harlan, Ralph, and LarryRe: Kolten Wong, Mozeliak just yesterday strongly implied hell be considered a starter in the 2014 get-go. Something similar to, If I were betting, Id bet he receives a large amount of playing time. Cards wont give a hobbled, .125 ISO form of David Freese $5M+ in arbitration. Wong at 2nd, Carpenter slides acro s to 3rd.
10:42Jeff Sullivan: Theres a much better response to the man above than I was able to provide.
10:43Jeff Sullivan: Mozeliak said rookie Kolten Wong, a first-round pick in 2011, could be the everyday second baseman. Leadoff man Matt Carpenter would proceed to third, displacing David Freese.
If I had a bet, I'd say hes probably going to get a large amount of playing time for us, Mozeliak said.
10:43Jeff Sullivan: http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/profe sional/baseball/mlb/st_louis_cardinals/despite-qualifying-offer-cards-don-t-expect-beltran-back/article_addc7176-45db-11e3-9815-0019bb2963f4.html
10:44Comment From BkgeneralHere is the downside to routing for a good team. Expectations. I am Reds fan, 2010 was great. Did same thing this year and 2013 and it felt like a disappointment. Why? Expectations!
10:44Jeff Sullivan: Id much like to understand even what it really seems like to merely be let down
10:45Jeff Sullivan: A minimum of your team enables you to feel *something*
10:45Comment From person hscerBriefly before I just read it, what's the changing reality of the lefty strike?
10:45Jeff Sullivan: there are fewer of them now
10:45Comment From GuestWhat would be the chances the Sox get Stanton and dont have to give up Bogaerts?
10:45Jeff Sullivan: Not even close to 0%!
10:45Comment From PeteyShould Cinci 1) trade Chapman, 2) stretch him out, or 3) keep at closer?
10:45Jeff Sullivan: Yet another try at #2, then #3
10:45Comment From JustinAny gue ses on what the Dodgers end up doing at 2B? Just a suming Guerrero is ready to start seems crazy in my experience.
10:47Jeff Sullivan: They might attempt to give Guerrero some ST competition, but if they do anything else at 2B its probably just something small , short-term so that Guerrero may take the reins
10:47Comment From Jack ZWhat really happened between you and Lookout Landing?
10:47Jeff Sullivan: precisely what I wrote! why cant people appreciate this!
10:47Comment From SadwickJeff, you cant keep answering questions like the one DEREK submitted. If I laugh aloud randomly too much people think Im insane.
10:48Jeff Sullivan: I DONT KNOW WHY WE DONT DO MORE QUESTIONS IN ALL CAPS
10:48Comment From Catoblepaswhen do Steamer projections emerge? The i sue about Salty/McCann has me thinking that the former never has a year such as this again, and I was curious to determine what Steamer thought.
10:48Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer
10:48Jeff Sullivan: !!!
10:48Comment From Meano EnoWould being too lefthanded inside a rotation be considered a concern? For example Kershaw/Price/Ryu etc?
10:49Jeff Sullivan: Cant imagine theyd get worried. What does it matter, as long as the pitchers are great? Those pitchers are great.
10:49Comment From JustinI feel like Ellsbury would go to the Angels. I dont know why. Just seems like the type of signing theyd make.
10:49Jeff Sullivan: Theyre already bitching about how they dont have the money to sign Trout to a long-term contract
10:49Comment From ColeWhat %-chance is there that you'll wrap up this chat now?
10:49Jeff Sullivan: Getting in place there!
10:50Comment From TKDCOmar Vizquel went 9-20-10-5-15-3 in errors during six virtually full seasons throughout his prime.
10:50Comment From Scout FinchChances Boston would be interested in trading for Fat Ichiro?
10:50Jeff Sullivan: Low
10:50Comment From The OberamtmannA-rod over Trout. Shortstop!
10:50Jeff Sullivan: Center field!
10:50Comment In the OberamtmannWhats the point of the QO-offer, cant trade rule?
10:50Jeff Sullivan: So teams dont just bypa s the effects from the QO
10:50Comment From GuestWhich teams did you bandwagon this postseason?
10:51Jeff Sullivan: As, Rays, Pirates. you realize, the usual
10:51Comment From TomIs it simply me, or is Andrus contract an albatro s waiting to occur? Hes a man set to create $15M per year throughout eternity practically, but he derives the majority of his value from his glove, which is a young mans skillset.
10:52Jeff Sullivan: Hes newly 25, hes been worth 11 wins in the last 3 years, and the contract maxes out at $15 million in a season, which just wont seem like much a little down the road. Already it doesnt look like much. Its an excellent extension for a somewhat disappointing player
10:52Comment From Matthew BerryMiller/Adams for Andrus is whoa crazy crazy. Nobody even claimed him on waivers this past summer. Id think Adams/Kelly should be enough to get it done.
10:53Jeff Sullivan: Boy could Andrus use even just one season with an ISO north of .100
10:53Comment From JustinIf you had been a GM, which big-ticket free agent can you LEAST like to sign this offseason?
10:53Jeff Sullivan: Probably Nelson Cruz
10:53Comment From CatoblepasNo real distinction between outfielders now, right? Victorino implies that CF playing right is an extremely reasonable and good thing
10:53Comment From Shark MapiroIf the Indians move Santana to full time 1B/DH, the amount of an impact do you consider it might dre s in his offense?
10:54Jeff Sullivan: Gue s: maybe + [url=http://www.idealcowboys.com/69-Roger_Staubach_Jersey][b]Roger Staubach Jersey[/b][/url] 5%?
10:54Jeff Sullivan: theres the DH penalty to consider
10:54Comment From EvanAny chance at all STL looks at signing Ellsbury?
10:54Jeff Sullivan: Extremely low
10:54Comment From Sox fanWhat say thee: Middlebrooks/Peavy for Iwakuma?
10:54Jeff Sullivan: Why would Seattle want Middlebrooks?
10:55Comment From EvanFrom 12-13 Jon Jays BABIP dropped 30 points, but his LD% increased 5. That seems like lots of misfortune in my experience. Could 14 be a rebound season for him offensively?
10:56Jeff Sullivan: He could po sibly slug .400 again. The more I look at it, the greater I believe I mightve been exaggerating the Cardinals problems in CF due to how Jay looked in October
10:56Jeff Sullivan: Hes not great but hes fine as what he is. Hes no Kozma
10:57Comment From MarkWill you mail me something much better than Pyramid brews?
10:57Jeff Sullivan: http://www.cascadebrewingbarrelhouse.com/
10:57Comment From Tom$15M isnt a bad number for Andrus at this time, certainly, but shall we be held from line in thinking that time is likely going to be horrible as soon as 3 or 4 years from now? >5 year contracts almost never exercise.
10:58Jeff Sullivan: Andrus may not improve, but $15 million may also buy le s and le s as more time pa ses. I dont think hes likely to wind up a payroll disaster
10:58Comment From Freest RolexesWait, are you currently offering to ship loyal fans cascade beers!?!
10:58Jeff Sullivan: Chats over! Gotta wrap up!
10:59Jeff Sullivan: Been two hours, and Ive got other stuff to do. Thanks you guys for hanging out and Im sorry for what I didnt or couldnt addre s. Well try it again next Tuesday at the same time, and until then, be wonderful and have great days



Re: Discount Mens Air Jordan 1 Retro High OG

red bottoms for men
canadian goose
kyrie 4 confetti
adidas nmd
louboutin shoes
adidas yeezy
adidas outlet store
valentino shoes
ecco shoes for men
cheap nfl jerseys
win like 82
kate spade outlet
calvin klein outlet
curry 4
pandora jewelry outlet
beats headphones
adidas outlet
tory burch handbags
pandora bracelet charms
clarks shoes
pandora charms
under armour clearance
jimmy choo shoes
asics gel
pandora canada
salvatore ferragamo shoes
cheap soccer cleats
birkenstocks
longchamp bags
off white shoes
balenciaga sneakers
asics shoes
louboutin mens
pandora
goyard
curry 4
fake rolex watches
lacoste polo shirts
soccer cleats
wholesale jerseys china
christian louboutin shoes
birkenstock shoes
balenciaga shoes
kyrie 4
fake yeezy boost
pandora charms
nike factory
louboutin
kd shoes
vapormax plus
air max 97
kyrie 3
curry basketball shoes
christian louboutin mens shoes
louboutin boots
pandora jewelry official site
pandora charm
clarks shoes for women
fitflop
clarks shoes for women
jordan 11 red
puma outlet
adidas yeezy
valentino outlet
jordan retro
yeezy shoes
kobe 12
pandora charms
jordan 12
fenty puma
pandora charms
birkenstock outlet
pandora earrings
gym red 11
vapormax flyknit
nike air max plus
michael kors outlet clearance
north face jackets clearance
michael kors handbags outlet
north face jackets
cortez
nike kyrie 4
pandora rings
vans store
nike air vapormax
yeezy boost
nike kd
louboutin shoes
vans
pandora bracelets clearance
birkin bag
asics gel lyte
win like 96
fake yeezys
yeezy beluga
air max 97 ultra
kyrie 4 confetti
air max plus
timberland outlet stores
kyrie 4
kobe bryant shoes
pandora jewelry 70 off clearance
yeezy boost 350 v2
michael kors outlet
coach outlet
ferragamo shoes
jordan 11 win like 82
red bottom
red bottom
rihanna fenty puma
pandora
nike vapor max
blue tint yeezy
coach handbags outlet
nike factory store
canadian goose jacket
longchamp handbags
nike clearance
red bottom shoes
the north face outlet online
fitflops sale clearance
coach outlet online
nike vapor max plus
beats wireless
yeezy boost 350 v2
louboutin outlet
converse outlet
nmd r1
lacoste outlet
canada goose sale
kd 10
red bottom shoes
skechers outlet
christian louboutin men
red bottoms louboutin
uptempo
lebron 15 shoes
adidas outlet
yeezy boost 350 v2
nike vapor max
yeezy
kd 10
pandora jewelry
adidas ultra boost
birkenstock sandals
polo ralph lauren outlet
red bottoms
barbour jackets
kyrie 3
pandora sale
the north face jackets
air max 2018
barbour
huaraches nike
birkenstock outlet
rihanna puma
ultra boost
curry shoes
salvatore ferragamo
wholesale nfl jerseys
kevin durant shoes
pandora bracelet
mbt
off white vapormax
jordan 11 red
nike kyrie
michael kors canada
yeezy boost
ecco
goyard bags
nike cortez
pandora charms sale
fitflops
off white jordan
timberland outlet stores
cheap nike
fitflop sandals
pandora jewelry
tory burch outlet
nike air vapormax
fenty puma
air max plus
under armour outlet online
huarache shoes
vapor max
pandora jewelry official site
red bottom shoes for women
lebron 15
balenciaga triple s
yeezy boost 350 v2
timberland shoes
celine handbags
calvin klein underwear
calvin klein online
air max 2018
pandora jewelry
kyrie 3 basketball shoes
pandora bracelet
supreme clothing
nike outlet store
curry 4 shoes
nike outlet store online
red 11s
yeezy shoes
vapor max
yeezy zebra v2
red jordan 11
off white nike
kd 10 shoes
adidas yeezy boost
coach factory outlet
pandora jewelry
pandora bracelets clearance
replica rolex
red bottom heels
canada goose jackets
curry 4 shoes
replica watches
birkenstock sandals
ralph lauren factory store
supremenewyork
fitflop
supreme hoodie
coach outlet store
birkenstock sandals
birkin bags
yeezy blue tint
curry shoes
yeezy boost 350 v2
pandora ring
fake yeezy
air max 97 silver bullet
nike uptempo
asics running shoes
converse shoes
jordan 11 win like 96
pandora necklace
birkenstock
nike clearance
mbt shoes clearance
jimmy choo outlet
pandora bracelet
skechers shoes
kyrie irving shoes
yeezy beluga 2.0
celine
air jordan retro 11
pandora rings
nike outlet online
north face clearance
nike air max 2018
jordan retro 12
timberland outlet
kate spade handbags
yeezy boost 350 v2
air max 97
adidas yeezy
adidas outlet online
yeezy zebra
vapor max
cheap nfl jerseys china
puma shoes
2018.0611W