2013 ZiPS Projections 8211 Texas Rangers

Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections, that have typically appeared within the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are now being released at FanGraphs this season. Below are projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski are available on Twitter at @DSzymborski.Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants / Nationals.BattersDespite various trials and a sorted tribulations, Josh Hamilton still posted the second-best WAR (4.4) among Rangers batters this year and averaged about 4.5 wins per season during his five years in Texas. Replacing Hamilton in 2013, barring any substantial acquisitions, will be a mixture of David Murphy (in left field) and a platoon of Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry (in center) although, because Murphy and Gentry received considerable playing amount of time in 2012 (521 and 269 plate appearances, respectively), Martin may be the main new variable in the Rangers outfield equation.By regre sed batting, Martin was one of the best prospect-age batters (i.e. age 24 or younger) within the Pacific Coast League, exhibiting the capacity both to control the strike zone and hit for modest power. Thats certainly promising, but ZiPS suggests that Texas may still attend a deficit within the outfield because of Hamiltons departure.PitchersAfter Detroit, the Texas pitching staff posted the best WAR in the majors last season. ZiPS forecasts ace Yu Darvish actually to exceed his 5.1 WAR and 89 ERA- from 2012.Despite the departures each of Scott Feldman (towards the Cubs) and Koji Uehara (towards the Red Sox), Texas still has some depth. That some of the most interesting pieces (Neftali Feliz, Colby Lewis, Joakim Soria) will begin the season on the disabled list, however, clearly isnt entirely ideal. The acquisition of Soria particularly who was signed to a two-year, $8 million contract at the begining of December has the potential to prove quite deft, should Soria approach his form from before Tommy John surgery.Bench/ProspectsShortstop prospect Jurickson Profar (a) turns 20 in February and (b) is already regarded by ZiPS as the teams third-best field player. Unlike Leonys Martin (mentioned previously), Profar really does seem like Trevor Davis Jersey a player who could almost entirely mitigate losing Josh Hamilton le s by means of his power, obviously, and much more by his defensive skills and plate discipline. Locating a position for him is really a question that are available for which the answer remains an unsolved mystery almost like a tv show hosted by Robert Stack about hitherto unsolved mysteries. Many of the things one might say about Profar can probably be said about Mike Olt, too except that hes from Curaao, because hes not.Depth ChartHeres a tough depth chart for that Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.Batters, Counting StatsPlayerBAgePOPARH2B3BHRRBISBCSAdrian BeltreR343B57472158311288921Ian KinslerR312B644901513242070207Jurickson ProfarB20SS610651433161360177Elvis AndrusR24SS702811702863542911Mike OltR243B48753106172196151Craig GentryR29CF3373979123329175Nelson CruzR32RF556651343412482104A.J. PierzynskiL36C47447123222145911David MurphyL31LF478491182221354115Geovany SotoR30C4074783190155610Leonys MartinL25CF38843952138421511Mitch MorelandL271B50354120251176432Julio BorbonL27CF52558131176646206Yangervis SolarteB252B4975112825174332Engel BeltreL23CF6146114618107452710Leury GarciaB222B512501241772342811Eli WhitesideR33C21424429142011Brandon AllenL27RF4595190193166172Konrad SchmidtR28C423349221174222Dusty BrownR31C237214614052311Luis MartinezR28C329307015122911Robinzon DiazR29C234236111142401Koyie HillB34C1301124511800Aaron CunninghamR27CF390428322284735Matt KataB353B436379718264121Chih-Hsien ChiangL25RF52750121302115933Val MajewskiL32LF248215110132431Ryan SpilborghsR33LF399368416163743***Batters, Rates and AveragesPlayerPABB%K%ISOBABIPBAOBPSLGwOBAAdrian Beltre5745.1%12.7%.220.296.296.334.516.357Ian Kinsler6449.8%12.1%.177.277.266.346.443.344Jurickson Profar6108.5%16.6%.151.299.263.331.414.322Elvis Andrus7028.8%13.0%.080.319.276.346.356.308Mike Olt48710.7%29.8%.182.325.247.331.429.328Craig Gentry3375.6%16.6%.089.309.260.321.349.298Nelson Cruz5567.4%21.4%.212.298.264.320.476.340A.J. Pierzynski4743.8%11.0%.153.285.277.311.430.314David Murphy4789.0%15.5%.152.303.275.341.427.330Geovany Soto4079.8%23.3%.178.270.231.313.409.313Leonys Martin3887.0%17.5%.145.313.270.326.415.313Mitch Moreland5037.6%19.1%.171.297.264.321.435.318Julio Borbon5254.8%13.5%.097.303.269.307.366.293Yangervis Solarte4974.6%9.5%.103.292.275.311.378.299Engel Beltre6143.7%22.0%.103.321.255.292.358.283Leury Garcia5124.1%23.0%.078.340.259.296.337.276Eli Whiteside2146.1%25.2%.119.275.216.274.335.262Brandon Allen45910.2%29.8%.180.290.223.307.403.308Konrad Schmidt4234.7%22.9%.112.292.235.280.347.271Dusty Brown2379.3%24.5%.137.272.217.291.354.282Luis Martinez3297.6%22.2%.077.301.234.298.311.271Robinzon Diaz2342.1%6.4%.111.274.270.288.381.287Koyie Hill1306.2 Kentrell Brice Jersey %26.9%.084.274.202.250.286.224Aaron Cunningham3907.4%21.5%.142.285.235.297.377.288Matt Kata4363.7%14.9%.098.269.240.281.338.270Chih-Hsien Chiang5274.0%20.1%.135.286.243.278.378.282Val Majewski2486.5%21.4%.091.274.222.274.313.259Ryan Spilborghs3997.5%22.8%.100.293.234.297.334.279***Batters, A sorted OtherPlayerPARC/27OPS+DefWARNo.1 CompAdrian Beltre5746.612084.8Hank MajeskiIan Kinsler6445.810643.8Mark EllisJurickson Profar6105.19543.2DAngelo JimenezElvis Andrus7024.78663.0Steve SaxMike Olt4875.29842.4Mark ReynoldsCraig Gentry3374.377152.0Gene ClinesNelson Cruz5565.610601.9Jermaine DyeA.J. Pierzynski4745.093-31.8Brian HarperDavid Murphy4785.410131.6Orlando MercedGeovany Soto4074.588-21.5John BuckLeonys Martin3884.89321.2Rick ManningMitch Moreland5035.19700.9Danny LewisJulio Borbon5254.37620.9Mike SpidaleYangervis Solarte4974.48100.8Terry TiffeeEngel Beltre6143.97040.7Nathan HaynesLeury Garcia5123.86640.6Juan BellEli Whiteside2143.15940.5Chad MoellerBrandon Allen4594.48500.4Kevin BurnsKonrad Schmidt4233.464-10.3Salomon ManriquezDusty Brown2373.569-20.2Henry BlancoLuis Martinez3293.261-10.1Dave ParrishRobinzon Diaz2344.074-40.0Jeff SmithKoyie Hill1302.441-1-0.2Frank CharlesAaron Cunningham3903.776-4-0.3Adam PavkovichMatt Kata4363.462-3-0.5Vinny CastillaChih-Hsien Chiang5273.7711-0.6Jim AutenVal Majewski2483.055-2-0.9Marc SagmoenRyan Spilborghs3993.466-5-1.2Chris Pritchett***Pitchers, Counting StatsPlayerTAgeGGSIPSOBBHRHRERYu DarvishR262929193.022686151587873Matt HarrisonL273030191.312057211969286Alexi OgandoR292625135.311741161216056Neftali FelizR252121118.010548121045148Derek HollandL262928170.714155271709286Colby LewisR33151594.0822214914542Roy OswaltR352218111.38528141195955Robbie Ro sL2460065.346255622927Joe NathanR3852049.353137452120Joakim SoriaR2949049.047146472221Cory BurnsR2564067.759267683432Josh LindblomR2670069.0633111673735Yoshinori TateyamaR3743049.744157492624Martin PerezL223026137.77264171669084Michael KirkmanL26401194.7815812995955Tanner ScheppersR2653057.345207633230Justin MillerR2644057.043317573230Joe OrtizL2254058.734159663331Cody BuckelR212520108.78356181187267Mark LoweR3040039.334156402120Evan MeekR3048050.038307513129Matthew WestR2421023.014133261514Willie EyreR3446158.334287693735Justin GrimmR242724126.07151201548882Randy WellsR302319110.36345191337772Jeff BeliveauL2655062.0563311664037Wilmer FontR2358053.3583910503432Neal CottsL3324028.321184321918Aaron HeilmanR3443048.734218563230Sean GreenR3426032.321214382221Ro s WolfR3051061.036259734239Coty WoodsR2550054.0372510623735Roman MendezR22251790.76147161096662Tommy HottovyL3143055.7382911654138Neil RamirezR242727105.37659201237974Collin BalesterR2746168.0513214774946Zach SimonsR2842054.0353913654744Greg ReynoldsR272522125.047422318010396Zach JacksonL302718117.044622116510093***Pitchers, Rates and AveragesPlayerIPTBFK%BB%BABIPERAFIPERA-FIP-Yu Darvish193 Jacob Schum Jersey .082327.5%10.4%.2943.403.248077Matt Harrison191.382714.5%6.9%.2794.054.189699Alexi Ogando135.356820.6%7.2%.2693.723.888892Neftali Feliz118.050620.8%9.5%.2723.663.918792Derek Holland170.773719.1%7.5%.2814.544.54107107Colby Lewis94.039520.8%5.6%.2824.024.129597Roy Oswalt111.348117.7%5.8%.3004.454.0410596Robbie Ro s65.328316.3%8.8%.2783.723.788889Joe Nathan49.320625.7%6.3%.2903.653.648686Joakim Soria49.020822.6%6.7%.2953.863.759189Cory Burns67.729719.9%8.8%.3034.263.9410193Josh Lindblom69.030520.7%10.2%.2864.574.73108112Yoshinori Tateyama49.721320.6%7.0%.2894.354.0610396Martin Perez137.764311.2%10.0%.3105.495.22130124Michael Kirkman94.744118.4%13.1%.3065.235.00124118Tanner Scheppers57.325517.7%7.8%.3114.714.21111100Justin Miller57.025916.6%12.0%.2874.744.92112116Joe Ortiz58.725713.2%5.8%.2924.764.85113115Cody Buckel108.750016.6%11.2%.2985.555.43131128Mark Lowe39.317319.7%8.7%.2884.584.42108104Evan Meek50.023116.5%13.0%.2885.225.26123124Matthew West23.010813.0%12.0%.2995.485.40130128Willie Eyre58.327212.5%10.3%.3105.404.98128118Justin Grimm126.058312.2%8.7%.3095.865.44139129Randy Wells110.350912.4%8.8%.3025.875.44139129Jeff Beliveau62.028519.6 Jay Elliott Jersey %11.6%.3045.375.34127126Wilmer Font53.324923.3%15.7%.2945.405.83128138Neal Cotts28.313515.6%13.3%.3115.725.46135129Aaron Heilman48.722315.2%9.4%.3065.555.25131124Sean Green32.315613.5%13.5%.3155.855.26138124Ro s Wolf61.028112.8%8.9%.3095.755.21136123Coty Woods54.024914.9%10.0%.3015.835.63138133Roman Mendez90.742814.2%11.0%.3136.155.80145137Tommy Hottovy55.726114.6%11.1%.3026.146.08145144Neil Ramirez105.349815.3%11.8%.3076.326.00149142Collin Balester68.031316.3%10.2%.2996.095.82144138Zach Simons54.026613.2%14.7%.2977.337.26173172Greg Reynolds125.05977.9%7.0%.3296.915.91163140Zach Jackson117.05787.6%10.7%.3257.156.47169153***Pitchers, A sorted OtherPlayerIPK/9BB/9HR/9ERA+WARNo. 1 CompYu Darvish193.010.544.010.701305.7Bob TurleyMatt Harrison191.35.652.680.991104.1Greg HibbardAlexi Ogando135.37.782.731.061193.4Ben McDonaldNeftali Feliz118.08.013.660.921213.1Tony ArmasDerek Holland170.77.432.901.42982.7Cliff LeeColby Lewis94.07.852.111.341102.1John SmoltzRoy Oswalt111.36.872.261.131001.8Bartolo ColonRobbie Ro s65.36.343.450.691191.2Pat ClementsJoe Nathan49.39.682.371.281210.9Lee SmithJoakim Soria49.08.632.571.101150.8Mike SchoolerCory Burns67.77.843.460.931040.8Alejandro PenaJosh Lindblom69.08.224.041.43970.6Bo DonaldsonYoshinori Tateyama49.77.972.721.271020.5Jeff MontgomeryMartin Perez137.74.714.181.11810.5Greg KubesMichael Kirkman94.77.705.511.14850.5Bobby SprowlTanner Scheppers57.37.073.141.10940.4Derek Ha selhoffJustin Miller57.06.794.891.11940.3Joel MooreJoe Ortiz58.75.212.301.38930.3Ryan MeauxCody Buckel108.76.874.641.49800.3Joaquin BenoitMark Lowe39.37.793.441.37970.3Matt KarchnerEvan Meek50.06.845.401.26850.0Mike CookMatthew West23.05.485.091.1781-0.1Scott MunterWillie Eyre58.35.254.321.0882-0.1Jason ChildersJustin Grimm126.05.073.641.4376-0.1Peter BauerRandy Wells110.35.143.671.5575-0.1Dennis TankersleyJeff Beliveau62.08.134.791.6083-0.1Jesus PenaWilmer Font53.39.796.591.6982-0.1Dana RidenourNeal Cotts28.36.685.721.2778-0.2Eddie OropesaAaron Heilman48.76 Demetri Goodson Jersey .283.881.4880-0.2Jason ChildersSean Green32.35.855.851.1176-0.2Jerry JohnsonRo s Wolf61.05.313.691.3377-0.4Bob ScanlanCoty Woods54.06.174.171.6776-0.4Billy TaylorRoman Mendez90.76.054.661.5972-0.4Jeremy KingTommy Hottovy55.76.144.691.7872-0.6Eddie OropesaNeil Ramirez105.36.505.041.7170-0.7Darrel AkerfeldsCollin Balester68.06.754.241.8573-0.7Bo HallZach Simons54.05.836.502.1760-1.4Mumba RiveraGreg Reynolds125.03.383.021.6664-1.7Bill KingZach Jackson117.03.384.771.6262-2.0Chris Peters***Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors most of the players in the above list are unlikely to experience in the majors whatsoever in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production a .240 ZiPS projection might end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for instance. Whether or not a player will have is one of many non-statistical factors one must consider when predicting the long run.Players are listed using their newest teams unle s Dan has made a mistake. This is extremely po sible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting in line with the AL having a 4.09 ERA and also the NL using a 3.92 ERA.Players which are expected to be out due to injury continue to be projected. More details are always much better than le s information along with a computer isnt what should be projecting damages status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they aren't simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: ERA+ does not tell you that a pitchers ERA was X% le s or more compared to leagues ERA. It tells you the leagues ERA was X% le s or even more compared to pitchers ERA. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.